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For us British and Irish horse fanatics, there are only a few races that come onto our radar from Down Under and you can probably narrow that down to just two, the Cox Plate and the Melbourne Cup.
As we near the end of the flat season in Europe, the season in Asia and Australia is just getting started and the Cox Plate begins in the Moonee Valley in the early hours of our Saturday morning, 7:10am to be exact.
Recent History of the Cox Plate
This race has been predominantly won by Australian-New Zealand trainers, but in recent years there have been some foreign victories, with the Irish winning two and Japan also winning one. Trainers from Great Britain and Ireland have attempted to win this race several times in recent years due to the incredible prize money. So coming away with just two wins shows that it’s not as easy as it looks when you face the Australians.
State Of Rest was a winner for Joseph O’Brien in 2021 and Aidan did it with Adelaide in 2014, which is a fitting name for the win in Australia. I guess you could say that Aidan contributed to a second win in the last decade with Sir Dragonet (I’m just kidding) as that horse was praised for great things when trained in Ireland under Aidan. However, he didn’t fully realize his potential but still managed to win the Cox Plate for new connections in 2020.
We’ve watched the great Winx show off her skills on many occasions at Moonee Vallee as she managed to bag four Cox Plates for trainer Chris Waller and jockey Hugh Bowman between 2015 and 2018. What a wonderful mare she was and she has established herself as one of the best mares we have ever seen, even though we never managed to see her outside of her home country. However, she proved herself against some top European horses, even in this race when she defeated Benbatl in 2018, beating him with ease.
Last year the race was won by Romantic Warrior, who was swapped between trainers, was previously trained in Hong Kong before going to Danny Shum’s yard and has since returned to Hong Kong. He was in about fourth place when he beat Mr. Brightside (this year’s overtime race for all you The Killers fans). Moonee Valley is a tight route, especially on the short approach, so being prominent is the name of the game. Considering how close Mr. Brightside came in this race last year, he certainly has a good chance of getting revenge this time.
A closer look at the runners
Mr. Brightside
In number order, we start with Mr. Brightside, mentioned above. He came second in this race last year so you have to respect him, but he has a strange profile and it was a bit of a shock that he almost won last year as he was at 8/1. Those aren’t too big of a chance, but his profile before and after this race shows he’s not a consistent top performer who will be close in every Group 1 he competes in.
He is very versatile in terms of terrain and travel, he is comfortable over a mile and today’s 10f trip and has good form on both heavy and good ground. Since his run this racing year he has won three Group 1 races, two over 7f and the second over a mile, with a good chance in the first two runs. I still have doubts about whether this trip is what he wants.
forecast
Prognosis is the Japanese contender for this race. The Japanese have been a dominant force in the horse racing world in recent years, taking victories at the Meydan and the Breeder’s Cup among many other major events, but this horse isn’t exactly looking his best. His form is decent, he finished third behind Equinox and was second to Romantic Warrior after winning this race several times last year.
He could have a big race, but he often gets held up at the back of the field and I don’t think that’s ideal. He could get away with it because it wasn’t the biggest field, but his last run in August wasn’t the best.
Kovalica
The first horse trained by Chris Waller is Kovalica and I’m not beating around the bush, I don’t think he’s good enough to win a Cox Plate. He won Group 1 once, which is of course a great achievement, but compared to the others in this race he doesn’t look good enough.
Royal patronage
A name some of you will recognize is Royal Patronage, formerly trained by the Johnstons. He finished second in the Dante behind that year’s Derby winner, Desert Crown. He has since moved to Graham Motion’s in America and is now in Australia where he has had four runs so far. He was a decent horse in the UK but looks about the same level as before and that level shouldn’t be good enough.
Docklands
The only British runner in the race is Docklands. Of course, we know the most about this horse trained by Harry Eustace and we will most likely give him a better chance than he actually has, but I will try to be as honest as possible.
He’s a decent horse who hasn’t quite made it at the highest level yet. His form is good, particularly second place to Charyn at Royal Ascot, which has been scored several times this season.
His first attempt of today’s trip was at the Juddmonte in York, where he finished 7/13. Placed, 11.5 liters behind City Of Troy. They can probably give him a second chance as he was too slow at York, but if I’m honest I don’t think he’s good enough. He’s probably flattered that he came second to Charyn in Group 1, as the horses close behind would be lapped in this race.
Pride of Jenni
Pride of Jenni is an interesting runner as she gave Mr. Brightside a run for her money in the last three races they competed in, albeit in a shorter time. However, she is capable of winning today’s trip, as we saw when she beat Via Sistina by 6L a few weeks ago.
She is undetected on the trip and is 1/3 over 10f, with a close second place. The first run of this trip was on soft ground, which she dislikes, and I think she is a big contender for the Cox Plate. She ran seven days ago, which is very close to today’s race and makes me think it might be too soon for her, but when she’s at her best she’s a big player.
Via Sistine
Chris Waller’s second runner of the race is Via Sistina, which I just mentioned above. She is the mount of James McDonald and is a name you should all know as she was previously trained in the UK by Joseph Tuite before moving to George Boughey.
She had some very strong performances in Britain and some impressive wins on soft ground. She finished second to King Of Steel, which according to Racing Post figures is her best run on Champion’s Day last year. She was a Group 1 winner at the Curragh when training in the UK, which was achieved on good ground, but the standard of the horse she beat is up for debate.
A two-time Group 1 winner since moving to Australia, she is back on good ground, but her heavy defeat to Pride Of Jenni on similar ground raises questions. If this were happening on soft ground, she would be the one to beat, but that’s not the case. I think I’m happy to look elsewhere.
Other runners
There are a few three year olds in this race and they make it very interesting.
The first younger horse at Broadsiding who would probably have been ridden by James McDonald but there was no way he would finish 7th in 11lb. This horse is by Too Darn Hot, so you have to wonder if the journey is what he wants, but every time he’s run over a mile he’s done his best at the finish, so that’s what he looks like He will be an improver for promotion.
My biggest concern is how he will be positioned in the race as he has been held up in the past and I think they will try to put him out cold because he is pedaling. Given his light weight, he might be able to get away with it, as he weighs 17 pounds for the older mares and 21 pounds for the boys. I think he now has a great chance of moving up in the trip.
The other three-year-old is Evaporate, who has had a tight form line with broadsiding since his last run. Evaporate was miles ahead of Broadsiding, so if you like its chances, you probably have to give Evaporate a chance, even though it wasn’t nearly as desirable in the market. In my opinion Broadsiding had every opportunity to get past Evaporate in this race but couldn’t.
They both came from a similar position, you could say Evaporate had a small lead, but I never had the feeling until the last half of the eighth that the Godolphin horse would ever get past Evaporate, so I think the longer journey is broadsideing will promise more.
My predictions
It doesn’t look like a vintage Cox plate and I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of these won the prize. It seems a race which, if run five times, could produce a different winner on almost every occasion, but I relied on the young Godolphin horse Broadsiding to emerge victorious and become the first three-year-old winner since 2013.
I think he’ll be held up and as I mentioned that’s a concern, but it’s not a big field and knowing he has the tactical speed for shorter drives I think it’s him will go well and he will be able to break into contention down the back straight to secure a prominent position before sprinting an eighth of a mile home after swinging out of the corner. The light weight will be a big factor and I think the extra few furlongs will be beneficial for Broadsiding, who needed more in the Guineas race last time out at Caulfield.
I think Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside can fill the spots.
If you’re waking up nice and early to treat yourself to the Cox Plate, grab a beer and enjoy the racing Down Under!
Horse Racing Tips
Broadside
– 7:10 am
@The pools
